Hanlon's razor asks for reflection in situations where we perceive behavior  to be intentionally malicious. A useful exercise is to rethink the scenario  by replacing the malicious intent with reasons such as stupidity, stress or  just plain old misunderstanding.

Hanlon's Razor

Occam's razor originally stated that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily. In other words, don't complicate things when you don't need to. By shaving off unnecessary additions, the resulting explanation tends  to be less ambiguous, easier to verify, and just plain simpler. Occam's  Razor is often mentioned when selecting a simple solution over a complex  one. Note that this is a slightly stronger form than the principle  intended--reality can be complex and there are cases where the simple  solution is not correct.

Occam's Razor

A first principle is a foundational assumption or proposition that cannot be derived from other assumption or propositions. By attempting to break down problems into first principles and re-constructing solutions using these building blocks, you're less likely to be biased by prior assumptions. This in turn can lead to more innovative solutions.

First Principles Reasoning

A proximate cause is the event most closely associated with or immediately responsible for an observed result. This may differ from the root cause. Getting to a root cause often requires a deep dive into the situation using approaches like [Socratic questioning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_questioning) or the [5 Whys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_Whys)

Proximate and Root Causes

Social proof is a term used to describe our tendency to follow the behavior of others. This tendency is amplified if we are uncertain about the situation. Social proof generally guides us into making fewer mistakes—if many folks are doing something, it’s usually the correct thing to do. However, this “auto-pilot” behavior can be easily exploited to manipulate our decision making process. For instance, to lead us towards a decision that serves someone else's interests or is incorrect.

Social Proof

Survivorship bias occurs when we develop a skewed view of a situation by concentrating on the people or things that survived. Things that didn't survive lack visibility and are overlooked. A common result of survivorship bias is overly optimistic beliefs. By focusing primarily on the success stories, we fail to fully understand why the "failures" did not survive, often just assuming that it's due to a lack of qualities found in the survivors. Looking for counter examples when deriving patterns from success stories can be a useful exercise in combating survivorship bias.

Survivorship Bias

Reciprocity refers to a social norm in which we feel a sense of obligation when receiving positive actions towards us. For instance, receiving a favor or gift can trigger feelings of indebtedness to repay the act in someway. While reciprocity allows one to build relationships and exchanges, it can be exploited to gain someone's compliance to a request. This is because feelings of obligation can be felt even when receiving a positive action we do not want.

Reciprocity

Hindsight bias is the feeling we get when we perceive an event as being predictable, even though there's little evidence to suggest we could have predicted it. Once the event has occurred, it's easy to work backwards and find explanations. While hindsight bias can result in increased confidence and performance, too much can lead to overconfidence and an inability to learn from experience. For instance, by assuming that we could have done better than others after knowing the results of their actions, we lost an opportunity to understand why those actions were made.

Hindsight Bias

Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that causes us to see things in a way that confirms our preexisting beliefs. Because it involves selectively collecting and recalling information, the end result is a biased view point. In addition, confirmation bias may also cause us to ignore information that doesn't support our views. Closely related is the feeling of [cognitive dissonance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance) which refers to the discomfort we feel when holding contradictory beliefs.

Confirmation Bias

Scarcity refers to our tendency to place value on things according to how rare they are. It's often used as a mental shortcut to assess the value of something based on how easy or difficult is it to acquire. Scarcity doesn't just apply to objects--it can also be applied to things like time and information. For instance, we might place high value on spending some time with a busy individual or getting access to confidential information. Since scarcity can increase our desire for something, it's often artificially created to sell something. A good strategy to combat this desire is to remember that scarcity only increases our desire to obtain something and doesn't affect the actual value we'll extract from it.

Scarcity

In 1896, economist [Vilfredo Pareto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vilfredo_Pareto) found that 20% of the population in Italy owned 80% of the land. This ratio is commonly cited in wealth distribution (the richest 20% owns the majority of the world's income) and in business management (80% of sales come from 20% of clients). Another application is managing workload--by prioritizing the 20% most important work, we can (at times) gain 80% of the value. Note that while the Pareto principle can be a useful construct in many situations, it's not applicable everywhere. See also: [Power Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law).

Pareto Principle

A thought experiments is a technique used to explore a hypothesis, theory or principle by thinking through what its consequences would be. These experiments are not actually performed and are often impossible to set up. The intent is not to prove something, but rather to explore difficult questions through speculation and logical thinking. Hopefully, the results of this thinking will lead us down interesting paths we might otherwise miss. Some examples are: "What will happen if this event occurs?", "If B happened instead of A, how might things differ?", "If something happens in the future, what might cause it?".

Thought Experiment

The Diderot effect is named after French philosopher Denis Diderot who, after receiving an expensive robe, began a purchasing spree because he felt his current possessions felt tawdry in comparison to the robe. The effect consists of two ideas. The first is that we purchase things which feel cohesive to our sense of identity. These items tend to be complementary. The second is that obtaining something that differs from our current possessions can result in a desire to obtain goods which complement the new possession (i.e. are consistent with this new identity). This can result in a spiraling shopping spree.

Diderot Effect

Often described as "the map is not the territory", this mental model refers to the relationship between an object and a representation of that object. A map is an abstraction and imperfect representation of a territory--it is not the territory itself. Abstractions are a necessary step in simplifying the complexities of reality. After all, imagine how difficult it'd be to drive in an unknown area without a map. However, we should be aware that these abstractions have limitations and are created using assumptions that may not always be true. This applies to mental models as well--while useful in explaining common situations, reality is not bound to conform to these models.

Map and Territory Relation

Past occurrences of an independent random event have no impact of future occurrences. For instance, the probability of getting heads in a coin toss is 1/2 regardless of the previous tosses. If we encounter a dozen heads in a row, we may feel that the next toss will be tails to balance things out. This is a mistaken belief--the probability of tails remains 1/2, the same as in previous tosses.

Gambler's Fallacy

Goodhart's Law highlights the issue with focusing solely on the value of a measure as an indication of success or progress. Often, observers will artificially change their behavior to reach a target without caring about the reason for the measure. In other words, they'll try to game the system. The law was originally stated as: "Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes."

Goodhart's Law

The sunk cost fallacy describes our resistance to stop an endeavor after investing time, money or effort into it. This limits our ability to see its worth in present terms and potentially misallocate additional resources on it. In other words, we're not cutting our losses. Ideally, we would make decisions regarding an endeavor based on relevant information--suck costs are almost always irrelevant.

Sunk Cost Fallacy

When producing something, there are inputs and results. The law of diminishing returns states that simply increasing one input but keeping others the same will at some point yield diminishing results.  In some cases, this can be improved by adjusting other inputs appropriately. For example, if adding more workers to a factory, we can also add more machines and working space. In other cases, the production may be inherently difficult to parallelize.

Diminishing Returns

Events that have occurred recently tend to be seen as more important than historic events. This is often just because the event is fresh in our memory as opposed to its actual importance. Given that the perceived importance of recent events will likely drop with time, recency-bias can lead to skewed perceptions and poor decision-making.

Recency Bias

Premack's Principle, often used in psychology, suggests that more desirable activities can motivate and reinforce less desirable ones. It's based on the idea that if a person wants to do a particular activity, they can use that desire as a reward for completing a less appealing task first. This principle is especially useful in behavior modification, education, and self-discipline strategies, helping individuals or educators to encourage the completion of necessary but less appealing tasks by following them with more enjoyable activities.

Premack's Principle

The Goldilocks Rule states that maximum engagement and motivation are achieved when tasks are at the right level of difficulty - not too easy to be boring, but not too hard to be frustrating. This concept is rooted in the psychological theory of flow, where a person is fully immersed and focused on an activity. The Goldilocks Rule is valuable in personal development, education, and workplace productivity, as it helps in designing tasks and challenges that keep individuals optimally engaged and motivated, leading to better learning, performance, and satisfaction.

Goldilocks Rule

Illeism is the practice of referring to oneself in the third person (e.g. they) instead of  the first person (e.g. I). This can be used as a mental model to create a psychological distance between the self and one's actions or thoughts. By speaking or thinking about oneself as a separate entity, it becomes possible to assess personal behaviors, decisions, and characteristics more objectively. This detachment can aid in self-reflection, reduce emotional bias, and foster clearer, more impartial thinking. It's a technique sometimes used in therapeutic settings, leadership development, and by public figures to gain unique perspectives on their own actions.

Illeism (Third Person Thinking)

Hyperbolic discounting is a cognitive bias where individuals prefer smaller, immediate rewards to larger, delayed ones. This model explains why people often opt for immediate gratification, even when waiting would yield a better outcome. This behavior is contrary to the "rational" choice model in economics and highlights the human tendency to disproportionately value the present over the future. Understanding this bias can help in making more rational long-term decisions, such as saving for retirement or maintaining healthy habits.

Hyperbolic Discounting

The Lindy Effect is a theory that suggests the future life expectancy of non-perishable things, such as a technology, an idea, or a book, is proportional to their current age. This means the longer something non-perishable  has been around, the longer it is likely to continue to exist. This concept is  often used to discuss the longevity of cultural items or technologies,  suggesting that those which have proven their durability over time are likely  to remain relevant or in use for an extended period.

Lindy Effect

The Zeigarnik Effect is a psychological phenomenon that suggests people remember uncompleted or interrupted tasks better than completed tasks. Named after Soviet psychologist Bluma Zeigarnik, who first studied the phenomenon, it implies that incomplete tasks create a kind of mental tension that improves recall. This can be applied in various fields, such as education and project management, to enhance productivity and learning by structuring tasks and breaks effectively.

Zeigarnik Effect

The Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias that causes people to ascribe more value to things merely because they own them. This effect suggests that people are more likely to retain an object they own than acquire that same object when they do not own it. This bias can lead to irrational decision-making in various contexts, from personal possessions to financial investments, where owners overvalue what they own and demand more to give them up than they would be willing to pay to acquire them if they did not own them.

Endowment Effect

Parkinson's Law is the adage that "work expands to fill the time available for its completion", suggesting that the duration of a task is dictated by the deadline set for it, rather than by the amount of work involved. This concept implies that if you give yourself a week to complete a two-hour task, then (psychologically speaking)  the task will increase in complexity and become more daunting so as to fill that week. It highlights the inefficiencies in time management and suggests the importance of setting appropriate deadlines to increase productivity.

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